A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
